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Fans begin to return to the PGA Tour this week with 5,000 spectators per round allowed on the grounds of TPC Scottsdale in Phoenix, Arizona, for the Waste Management Phoenix Open. Below, we’ll look for the best value bets in the 2021 Waste Management Phoenix Open odds, with tournament matchups, placings and other PGA Tour prop bet predictions.
Running during the week of Super Bowl 55 and the European Tour’s Saudi International, a strong field including six of the top-nine golfers in the Golfweek/Sagarin world rankings is in attendance. Webb Simpson is back to defend his title while Rory McIlroy makes his tournament debut at TPC Scottsdale.
Odds provided by BetMGM; access USA TODAY Sports’ betting odds for a full list. Lines last updated Tuesday at 5:15 p.m. ET.
Matchup bets
Bubba Watson (-118) vs. Brooks Koepka
Everyone keeps thinking Koepka, a four-time major winner and the 2015 Phoenix Open champ, needs to get right eventually. Well, he has missed three three straight cuts and is in complete disarray.
Watson also missed the cut last week at the Farmers Insurance Open in his first event of 2021. Only four golfers with 10 or more rounds of experience at TPC Scottsdale have averaged more than Watson’s 1.95 strokes gained on the field per round.
Webb Simpson vs. Daniel Berger (+105)
Berger and Simpson come into the week ranked sixth and ninth, respectively, in the Golfweek rankings. Simpson, the defending tournament champion is a modest favorite in this tournament head-to-head despite having the lower world ranking. Both are playing for the first time in 2021 back on the mainland after they each played both events in Hawaii.
Berger has never won here, but he has three top-10 finishes in six appearances. Both are excellent ball-strikers are among the top-six betting favorites for the week. Take the value in Berger in what should be a pick ’em.
Placing bets
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Top 5: Byeong Hun An (+1600)
Going back to course history, An’s 2.09 strokes gained on the field per round rank fourth in this field among those with at least 12 rounds played. He tied for eighth in a slightly weaker field at The American Express two weeks ago before a T-75 finish last week amid a poor putting performance. His experience on these greens should help.
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Top 10: Doc Redman (+1400)
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Redman missed the cut in two of his last three events, but he collected three top-10s from mid-August to early November of 2020. He’s struggling around the greens on the 2020-21 season, but he’s still gaining 0.34 strokes per round off-the-tee and suits this venue well with relatively unguarded putting surfaces.
Top European: Rory McIlroy (+210)
This is a glorified head-to-head between McIlroy and tournament betting favorite Jon Rahm (+100). Henrik Norlander and Rory Sabbatini are next by the odds in this group at +1400 and +1600, respectively.
Rahm has three career top-10 finishes here while McIlroy debuts, but the Northern Irishman is better with the driver, ranking second on Tour in SG: Off-the-Tee for the season.
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First-round leader
Webb Simpson (+2500)
This is good value for the defending champion. It’s early in the season, but Simpson is tied for eighth on Tour with a first-round scoring average of 68.29 through seven events. He opened with a 71 here last year but shot 63-64 in his next two rounds to fly up the leaderboard.
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