Seth Finkelstein's March Madness sleeper picks. His 2017 college basketball NCAA Tournament bracket predictions - NCAA teams to target in tournament brackets. Seth Finkelstein's college basketball NCAA Tournament bracket predictions. March Madness sleepers and busts picks - teams to target and avoid in your brackets.

• March Madness Sleepers
• March Madness Team Rankings
• March Madness Sleepers 2016 2020
• March Madness Sleepers 2016

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It's Selection Sunday and the participants in the 2016 NCAA tournament have officially been announced. College basketball fans and media analysts across the nation will spend the next three days deciding how best to fill out their brackets, but after Sunday's release, fans will be poring over the top-seeds in each region and potential sleepers that could make a deep run in the tournament. March Madness officially tips off with the First Four games on Tuesday, and while most official brackets don't start picks till after the First Four, HNGN is breaking down the top seeds and sleepers in each region.

East Region: The North Carolina Tar Heels are arguably the best and hottest team in college basketball heading into the tournament, and clearly deserved a one seed after winning both the ACC tournament and the regular season ACC Title. The Tar Heels were the best team in the best conference in all of college basketball, and head coach Roy Williams will look for his team to continue that success. The Xavier Musketeers received the second seed in the East Region, and will be looking to rebound after losing to Seton Hall in the semifinals of the Big East tournament. The Kentucky Wildcats were placed as fourth seed in the East and should be considered the team with the best chance to knock off the top-seeded Tar Heels.

The sixth seed Norte Dame Fighting Irish could be a team to watch out for as well. Despite being crushed by North Carolina in the ACC Tournament, they have proven throughout the year they can play with the top teams in the country.

South Region: The Kansas Jayhawks are the number one overall seed in the NCAA tournament, and rightly so - they won both the Big 12 regular season title and the Big 12 Conference Tournament. The Villanova Wildcats were placed second in the South Region, and despite a strong season they weren't given a one seed likely due in large part to falling short against Seton Hall in the Big East Championship. The top-seeded Jayhawks should be the favorite in this bracket, but two sleepers to watch out for are the sixth-seeded Arizona Wildcats and the ninth-seeded UConn Huskies.

The Huskies finished the season strong running through the American Athletic Conference tournament and are historically known for playing their best basketball in March. The Wildcats fell to the eventual Pac-12 Champion Oregon Ducks in overtime in the tournament's semifinal round, but head coach Sean Miller has been known to get the most out of his players in the NCAA tournament.

Midwest Region: The Virginia Cavaliers may have been the biggest surprise with a one seed on Selection Sunday, as they fell short against the East Region's top-seeded Tar Heels in the ACC tournament championship. The Cavaliers are led by a group of upperclassmen, many that are looking to finish their college careers with a special run through the NCAA tourny. The Spartans drew the second seed in the Midwest Region and head coach Tom Izzo's team should be considered the favorite in this bracket after leading the Spartans to a Big Ten Championship in the conference tournament.

Izzo is considered one of the greatest coaches in the sport of college basketball and currently has one of the best players in the country in Denzel Valentine. The 11th-seeded Gonzaga Bulldogs and 10th-seeded Syracuse Orange could be potential sleepers in the Midwest Region, although Gonzaga may have an easier road to the Sweet 16, as the Orange would likely have to play the Spartans should they get past seventh-seeded Dayton.

West Region: The Ducks are playing their best basketball late in the season and have earned themselves a one seed in the West after crushing Utah in the Pac-12 Championship, 88-57. The Ducks are rolling into the tournament hot, but have a tough two seed in their Region with the Oklahoma Sooners. Naismith Player of the Year contender Buddy Hield is arguably the best player in all of college basketball, and will look to lead the Sooners deeper in the tournament after reaching the Sweet 16 last year.

The Duke Blue Devils landed a four seed in the West Region and should be a team to keep an eye on as they could easily make a run in this bracket. Green Bay landed the 14th seed and has a difficult matchup against the Texas A&M Aggies, but could be a potential bracket buster and could provide an exciting game in the first round on Friday.

The NCAA Tournament is here and you can expect to hear a whole lot of specific jargon over the next week. You know it’s March Madness and the Big Dance has started. We know which teams automatically qualified and which received at-large bids. You know there are teams you shouldn’t sleep on and that probably has a lot to do with their body of work. Who’ll be cutting down the nets soon? Well a lot of that will have to do with the sleepers and the cinderellas.

As you prepare to pick your brackets, you’re going to be confronted with those two terms at least a few times. People will tell you that you have to think about a sleeper or two and you better assume that a handful of cinderellas are going to win at least a game.

But which is which? Can a 9-seed be a cinderella? Has a 15-seed ever been a sleeper? It’s time to definitively say once and for all how we define these two terms. Knowing what’s what could be the difference between winning your bracket or coming in third. No one likes to come in third.

Cinderella

This is the easier of the two to identify and the best way to think about it is to actually think about Cinderella. In the story, she’s a lowly peasant who shouldn’t be at the ball, but she gets all dressed up to fit in with the elite party-goers where she catches the eye of the prince and becomes the darling of the whole evening.

So basically, it has to be a team that no one would ever expect to win against the powerhouse teams and yet somehow does. The slipper doesn’t fit if people are talking about the team as a trendy upset pick, however. Seed does not dictate label. That said, you’re most likely to find a cinderella hiding somewhere in the 13 – 16 seed range.

The ultimate cinderella would be a 16-seed if one ever managed to knock off a 1-seed. We’ve been getting closer in recent years (Weber State lost by 9 to Arizona in 2014, Southern got within eight of Gonzaga in 2013) and it’s bound to happen sooner or later, but to-date the 16-seed is 0-124.

There was a brief time in 2012 and 2013 when the 15-seeds were in danger of jumping the shark. Three 15-seeds defeated 2-seeds in the opening round of the tournament, including a team that embodied the cinderella label perfectly, Florida Gulf Coast, which knocked off 2-seed Georgetown and even made it to the Sweet Sixteen.

There have been seven 15-seed winners but none in the last two years.

The way the tournament, and the sport, is changing, the separation between a 3/14 and a 4/13 isn’t what it used to be. Between 1986 and 2010, there were sixteen 14-seed victories. Between 2013 and 2015, there were four. It’s not at the point where we start expecting at least one 14-seed to pull off the upset, but if a lot of people are predicting a 14-seed to win, then you have to scratch them off the cinderella list.

13-seeds are already iffy when it comes to cinderella status. There have actually only ever been 25 13-seed victories in the first round, which is just five more than the 14-seeds, but this one’s been more consistent over the last ten years. It’s almost a foregone conclusion there will be at least one 13-seed winner. Again, consult your predictions to see if they qualify as cinderella or if people had a feeling this was coming.

March Madness Sleepers

A quick look around the 2016 NCAA Tournament and there’s a few cinderella opportunities that jump out at us this year.

15-seed UNC-Asheville has to be considered simply because they’re playing Villanova and the Wildcats have a reputation for early exits. The last five times they’ve appeared in the tournament they haven’t made it out of the first weekend.

We’ve also got our eye on 15-seed Weber State who is taking on 2-seed Xavier. Why? Why not. There’s also something about 13-seed Iona and 4-seed Iowa State that has us thinking upset. Maybe there’s just something about Iowa State, which lost to UAB as a 3-seed last year. But maybe it’s Iona, which features a nutty coach who seems destined to win a game or two in the NCAA Tournament.

One low seed we’re not considering as a cinderella? Stephen F. Austin. The Lumberjacks have built a Southland Conference dynasty and they’ve already got a 12-seed win under their belts.

March Madness Team Rankings

Sleeper

So now that we know what a cinderella is, what does that leave for the sleepers? Basically, it just comes down to a simple equation.

Teams That Aren’t Cinderellas Or Top Seeds – Teams That People Think Will Advance To At Least The Second Weekend = Sleepers.

So even if people expect a 1-seed to lose before the Sweet Sixteen, it doesn’t make them a sleeper if they do make it. They’re still a 1-seed, after all.

We’re talking about teams in the 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, and 12 seeding range. These are teams that belong in the tournament but no one thinks will make a real go of it. They’re the cannon fodder that 1-seeds and 2-seeds take out along the way to their preordained showdowns. However, that’s exactly where the sleeper comes in, ruining all the “fun.”

Last year, 11-seed UCLA made a run to the Sweet Sixteen thanks to another team’s upset along the way. 2014 was the year of the sleepers. 11-seed Dayton ran roughshod over Ohio State, Syracuse, and Stanford before falling in the Elite Eight. Meanwhile, 7-seed UConn and 8-seed Kentucky both peaked at the perfect time and met in the NCAA Championship game, something no one could have predicted. 9-seed Wichita State made a run to the Final Four the year before that.

So let it be known that sleepers are lurking and they are going far. The question is…how do you identify them?

Looking at the 2016 NCAA Tournament, there’s a few teams that stand out. Wichita State is back as an 11-seed but they’ve officially supplanted Gonzaga as The Mid-Major You Never Want To See In The First Round, so it’s not really fair to call them a sleeper anymore.

March Madness Sleepers 2016 2020

Keep an eye on the 8/9 game between St. Joseph’s and Cincinnati. The winner faces arguably the weakest 1-seed in Oregon and could exploit a defense that’s been beaten by mid-majors before. St. Joe’s might be the a good sleeper pick to see if they ride some of that old Phil Martelli magic.

There’s something about seeing UConn as a 9-seed that should scare the pants off of everyone in the South region. UConn does that best tournament work when they’re not expected to and Kansas could be playing not to lose in the next round. Still, can anyone sleep on UConn, a team that won the national title just two years ago?

The ultimate sleeper pick might be 10-seed Pitt. Pitt’s reputation for losing early in the NCAA Tournament is infamous. They’ve got Wisconsin in the first round and if they can find a way to win that, who’s to say they can’t give Xavier a game?

March Madness Sleepers 2016

Finally, we’re looking at you, Seton Hall. The Big East 6-seed isn’t even favored against 11-seed Gonzaga. That makes them prime sleeper material. If people aren’t even expecting a 6-seed to win their first game, that’s when you know they can really shake things up (or lose by double-digits as expected). The best sleepers are the teams everyone missed because we’ve convinced ourselves they will lose in the first round. Those teams that make the second weekend—and there will be a few of them—are the best sleepers to find.