Betting On High Odds
To begin with, we introduce the concept of high odds. High odds are odds higher than 4.0. In this case, the mathematical chances of a tennis player’s win are about 25%. There is also such a thing as ultra-high odds, which indicators are above 10, and the chances of winning are less than 10%. Of course, there are exceptions to the rules in terms of reliability, but in general, in theory and in practice, everything looks just like that. We will figure out how to make a profit from all this.
The psychological aspect of betting on high odds
If you use a high odds bidding strategy, then be patient and stock up with sedatives, you will definitely need them. You will constantly lose, because if you take a purely mathematical calculation, then only 1 out of 4 matches will bring you a win. In practice, this will be even less common, because you will not always catch odds 4.0, often it will be odds in the range of 4 to 10.
Also such a small chance of winning means that you will face series of 8-10 losses in a row. It is very difficult for both the head and your bank. In the matches you will cheer neither for Djokovic and Federer, but for the nonames. Well, or, in extreme cases, for an injured Djokovic or Federer – this is also not the best investment for nerves.
The financial aspect of high odds bets
But all that is described above is the price for rare cases of winning, which will not only return the bank to its original form, but also compensate for the nerves spent. The margin for betting on underdogs is often negative. Moreover, the more pop the match is in front of us, the more negative the margin will be.
For example, if the strong Roberto Bautista Agut plays against, for example, the rising star of Born Chorich or Mate Delicia, then you will see that odds on Choric’s victory (Delicia) will be around 5, especially if the match takes place on the ground, somewhere in Spain. So, here the odds reflect the real alignment of forces rather objectively. But if instead of Bautista Aguta plays, say, Stan Vavrikna, who took Monte Carlo before, then you will see a different picture: P. Wawrinka – 1.07, P. Choricha – 10. And this is already a cool match for the bet, because the chances here are really approximately the same as in the match with Bautista (20% to 80%), but odds arranged as if the chances (7% to 93%).
You see that in one of 6 cases you will not only return your bank, but also win extra 5 of your usual bets. Translating everything into a cash format, if you pay $50, you will receive additional $250.
The Best High odds betting predictions and tips, match analysis, free and VIP predictions generated by Artificial Intelligence. Feb 08, 2021 Betting Against The Odds When you bet for the underdog, it is called betting “against the odds.” For example, if odds are +300 for the Bears this Sunday, then it is three times more likely that they will lose than win. Odds of +300 indicate that if you bet $100, you will win $400, the original amount of your bet plus the profit. We offer different games ranging from sure 2 odds daily, sure 5 odds daily, weekend 10-500 odds on different game options like Over 2.5, Home win, Away win, Over1.5 Goals, Under 2.5, Both Teams to Score(BTTS), Double Chance, Draws, Half-time full-time, correct score, handicap, banker, Under 1.5 goals, etc.
Here we move on to another important component of high-odds bets. This is the distance. Matches, such as the hypothetical confrontation between Stan Wawrinka and Born Chorich or the already real confrontation between Nadal and Chorich or Wawrinka and Garcia-Lopez in 2014, fall out quite rarely. So, we often need to bet so that we have the opportunity to wait for this 1 out of 6 matches to still cut down the winnings.
So, instead of 20 standard bets per month that our dotennis service provides, you will need to make at least 50 (or even 100). After all, there will be losing series, in 10 and more matches that will need to be covered. Where to find so many interesting matches, with high odds we don’t know, but here the game in live mode comes to our aid.
We bet $50; we re-arrange $350. Why are live bets so good? Firstly, you can close in plus more matches than if you just sit there and wait for the outcome you want. So, if you took Chorich’s victory, in a match with Wawrinka for odds 10, and the young Croat took and made a break at the beginning of the match, then odds on Vavrikney’s victory will increase dramatically, say, from 1.07 to 1.25. Well, in this case, you are rearranging 7 of your usual bets on the victory of Wawrinka.
That is, if initially you bet $50 to Chorich’s win with odds 10 (potential win $450), then now you are betting 50 * 7 ($350) on Wawrinka’s win with odds 1.25 (potential win of $87.5). Well, you closed this match as a plus, because if you win Chorich, then you will get $100 ($450 in prize money for winning Chorich — $350 wagering on the victory of Wawrinka). If Wawrinka wins, then your prize will be $37.5 ($87.5 for Wawrinka’s victory — $50 for Chorich’s victory.) Hope, you understand how this works.
Matches with odds 3.0 and more
Now try to solve this problem yourself: what should be the size of the bet in order to get a plus in the Nadal – Brown match, if you initially bet $50 for Brown’s victory with odds 6, and after Brown made a break, odds for Nadal’s win jumped to 1.5?
Not more than 1%. Third, and perhaps most important, is the conduct of the bank. When betting on high odds, it is extremely important to adhere to the competent management of your bank. We recommend to bet no more than 1% of your current assets. So, if you allocated $3000 for bets from your budget, then for bets on large odds you should be limited to $30 per event. Otherwise, your bank will simply not stand the distance.
The question in reality is different. How many of you are ready to behave in a disciplined manner and bet a tiny 1-2% of the bank and wait for your chances at a distance? The circle is so narrow that it resembles the Sahara desert with an almost complete absence of inhabitants. That is why bets on high pounds are incredibly specific. Only for players with big banks they can be really interesting.
Nevertheless, in live you can catch matches with the odds above 5-6, but with pretty attractive chances in the region of 30-40%, and bet in the region of 5% of the bank, hoping to hit the jackpot. Of course, such matches are infrequent, but they are worth it. Having a large bank, even losing the wagered amount, your bank will still be competitive and will allow you to return to their original positions using more reliable strategies. If the bank is small, then large odds do not get involved.
Your bank simply can’t stand the pressure and will rapidly decrease, forcing you to take on ever greater risks. In this case, you are either lucky and will get a good jackpot, or will just completely lose your bank. The task of a professional player is to minimize the influence of luck, and to get one at a distance. But this requires skill and, at least, an average bank. Only major players can truly profit from high odds.
How to bet on T Over using xG statistics?
If you decide to play at high odds, use the xG statistics tables on the xScore website, in particular the xG90 and xGA90 indicators. The higher the performance of the teams in these columns, the higher the likelihood that goals will be scored.
Using xG statistics, remember that in the betting shops, each individual match receives different odds. Therefore, the lower the odds, the higher should be the probability of the total. In this case, the bet will have a positive ROI.
Is it possible to find out the exact probability of each event using xG statistics?
You can if you use such an advanced tool as the Monte Carlo generator. It helps to determine the exact probability of each event, in particular, the T Over values, based on xG indicators.
However, a positive ROI can be found easier. To do this, you need to analyze the most productive games and identify the teams that scored the most and conceded goals compared to the expected xG. To do this, add up the goals scored and conceded goals and compare the similar indicators for xG. As a rule, it is on these teams that it is beneficial to bet on T Over.
The thing is that the pool of players considers these teams to be ineffective, since it does not use xG for match analytics. Accordingly, they cannot, from the point of view of mathematics, evaluate the real potential of teams. For this reason, the T Over odds will be high and this will give an excellent positive ROI when betting on total over.
In addition, also consider the following factors:
- team behavior in the home and guest field;
- weather forecast;
- field condition;
- team motivation and desire to win;
- etc.
Taking into account all these factors as a whole will allow you to make the most complete picture of the upcoming match and make the most profitable bet.
Do not be afraid of betting on high odds — with a well-thought-out approach, they can bring excellent profits. The main thing is not to make typical mistakes of beginners, not to try to recoup, but to use effective betting tools, like xG statistics and ROI.
High Odds Betting Conclusions
This type of game in betting shops can be profitable in certain circumstances. But remember that the betting strategy on high odds is very bad for your nerves and psyche. Follow the rules of bank management and use live betting to maximize your profits. Accumulators do not apply to high odds bets. After all, we are looking for a negative margin in high odds, and when multiplying bets (actually making accumulators), we only increase the already positive for bs margin. Try not to bet on odds more than 100. In tennis, you rarely see such large odds; however, they occur when they determine the winners, say of GST.
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In this case, you can see odds 400 to win at Roland Garros of the same Bourne Chorich. So here Chorich’s real chances of winning fluctuates somewhere between 0 and minus infinity (in short, they are significantly less than 0.01%). But bs give odds 400, which corresponds to 0.25%. Here margin of bs is extremely high.
Odds 21 < odds 57. On the other hand, with regard to bets on GST winners, we always had a question: if you already want to bet that, say, Cilic will win the Australian Open in 2015, is it not more profitable to bet on a Cilic’s win in every single match at tournament, sequentially multiplying the increments? In the end, you will get much more anyway. Let’s explain with an example. Now on Cilic’s victory in Australia odds 21 are given.
Betting, say, $100 under odds 21, at the exit you will receive, in case of success, a profit of $2000 or a loss from a bet of $100. But if you bet successively, say, $100 for the first round with odds 1.2, if successful, the amount won in the second round at odds 1.05 and so on you will get much more. On the numbers it looks like this: 100 * 1.2 = $120, 120 * 1.05 = $126.5.
Betting On High Odds Golf
And when Cilic meets against Djokovic, Federer or Nadal in the later stages odds on Croat will be in the region of 6-10, which will lead your incremental bank to the same or greater profit already to the semi-finals or the finals, in case of sensation. As a result, if you bet sequentially, you really bet not on odds 21, but on odds 57 (1.2 * 1.05 * 1.4 * 1.5 * 2.7 * 4.0 * 2.0 = 57) if Cilic still wins Australia. If there is no sensation, then you will lose the same $100 that you initially wanted to bet on Cilic’s victory. In general, bets on victories in tournaments were invented either for losers or for crazy people (including such events in accumulators).
Betting On High Odds Football
Of course, there are exceptions, but their percentage is so small that it makes no sense to describe these cases. In general, bookmakers love such things, for example, they can put odds, which will be next bitten by Luis Suarez. And the Queen of Britain will be given odds, let’s say, 500. But then we understand that this event is almost unrealistic, which means odds should be with so many zeros that it does not fit on the screen. All this is understandable. But there are guys who will bet money on such an extremely unlikely event, and then they will try to fine-tune it. After all, the gain is substantial, and it will easily cover all your costs.
Some tips for a snack
Betting On High Odds Genesis Open
Bets on underdogs go very well after GST or at small ATP-250 competitions. In the example of Nadal and Brown, taken from the 2014 Galle tournament, we saw a classic example where Nadal was tired and had not really conducted any training on grass, and his opponent jumped a little higher than his head. In that match, odds on Brown’s victory were clearly artificially inflated and possessed a very large value. Or we can take a tournament in Winston-Salem, which precedes the US Open, where miracles always happen. So in 2014, Tommy Robredo lost to Frenchman Nicolas May in the first round. The victory of Nicolas May in 2 sets gave impressive odds 5.